NNT for MACE prevention — July 2024

Clinical perspective, offered as context rather than as advice.

zoe_NC said:

...we don't know the long-term effects of cardiovascular risk...

This is a fair point, and I think intellectual honesty requires acknowledging it. GLP-1 agonists in their current form have ~8-10 years of human exposure data. That's not nothing, but it's not 30+ years either.

However: the risk-benefit calculation should also consider the KNOWN long-term effects of untreated obesity — diabetes, cardiovascular disease, cancer, joint destruction, reduced lifespan by 5-10 years.

Uncertainty about GLP-1 long-term safety vs certainty about obesity consequences. The calculus seems clear to me, but reasonable people can disagree.

From the other side of the consultation, briefly.

Vitamin deficiency cascade with cardiovascular risk: after 6+ months of reduced food intake, I developed a subtle but important pattern: low B12 → elevated homocysteine → increased cardiovascular risk marker.

The connection: B12 is a cofactor for homocysteine metabolism. Without adequate B12, homocysteine accumulates. This is ironic — taking a CV-protective medication while developing a CV risk factor from reduced nutrition.

Solution: comprehensive vitamin supplementation and regular lab monitoring. Don't let the medication's benefits be undermined by nutritional deficiencies.

LibrarianMeg said:

Vitamin deficiency cascade with cardiovascular risk: after 6+ months of reduced food intake, I developed a subtle but important pattern: low B12 →…

Adding a me-too, because a thread of one person's experience is not much use.

LibrarianMeg said:

Vitamin deficiency cascade with cardiovascular risk: after 6+ months of reduced food intake, I developed a subtle but important pattern: low B12 →…

Anti-inflammatory mechanisms of GLP-1 agonists and cardiovascular risk: beyond weight loss, GLP-1R activation directly suppresses NF-κB signaling, reduces NLRP3 inflammasome activation, and decreases monocyte/macrophage adhesion to endothelium[1].

Clinical correlates: hsCRP reduction of 30-60% (consistently seen across trials), reduced carotid intima-media thickness, and decreased coronary plaque inflammation on PET imaging.

These anti-inflammatory effects likely contribute to the cardiovascular benefit seen in SELECT — and may explain benefits beyond what weight loss alone would predict.

Moderator note: the sourcing question belongs in the vendor section and has been split out.