sarah_TO said:The mechanism and the magnitude are separate questions.
There is a second half to this that has not been said yet. It is worth asking what the claim would look like if it were false. If nothing would look different, it is not a claim about the world and no amount of discussion will settle it.
Adding the numbers, since they settle part of this. Say what you would expect to see if you were wrong, before you look. It is a small discipline and it changes what you notice.
One thing that is still open after sarah_TO’s answer:
Was that from a primary source or from a summary of one?
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View Resultsbri_stats said:Say what you would expect to see if you were wrong, before you look.
Worth saying that the confident version of this is more useful to the person writing it than to the person reading it.
bri_stats said:Say what you would expect to see if you were wrong, before you look.
Agreed, and one caution: a single measurement is not a measurement. Anything that moves day to day needs a trend before it means anything at all.