From the other side of the consultation, briefly. The useful move here is to separate what is established from what is widely repeated. Those two sets overlap less than the confident tone of most write-ups suggests, and the second set is where nearly all the disagreement on this board comes from.
Ask again with the specifics and you will get a better answer than this one.
stefan_berlin said:Say what you would expect to see if you were wrong, before you look.
Correct, and worth adding that it is reversible. Nothing being described here is a one-way door, which changes how cautious it is reasonable to be.
stefan_berlin said:Say what you would expect to see if you were wrong, before you look.
That reframing is the part I needed. I will report back once I have actually tried it.
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View ResultsClinical perspective, offered as context rather than as advice. Whatever the answer turns out to be, the method for getting there is the same: state the assumption, do the arithmetic in public, and invite the correction. That is slower than asserting, and it is the only version that survives being wrong.
If somebody has the primary source to hand I would rather cite it than paraphrase it.