Answering the narrow version, because the broad one does not have a single answer. The phase 2 numbers were about 24% mean weight loss at 48 weeks on the top dose, with the curve still descending at the end of the study. A curve that has not flattened is a real finding, but it also means the true plateau is unknown, and phase 2 populations are small and selected.
My reason for being on this is cardiovascular rather than cosmetic, which puts me in a small minority in most of these threads.
The bit I cannot resolve on my own is how much of the SELECT benefit is plausibly independent of the weight loss, and whether that distinction changes anything practical.
If the honest answer is that nobody knows, that is a useful answer and I would rather have it.
DataDave said:The phase 2 numbers were about 24% mean weight loss at 48 weeks on the top dose, with the curve still descending at the end of the study.
Fair, but phase 2 tolerability figures rarely survive contact with phase 3 scale. Triple agonism means three receptor systems generating adverse events, and the dropout column is the one I would read first when the larger trials report.
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Browse GL BiochemSleepDoc_PDX said:My reason for being on this is cardiovascular rather than cosmetic, which puts me in a small minority in most of these threads.
This matches mine closely enough to be worth saying so out loud.
Clinical perspective, offered as context rather than as advice.
I want to bring up the cardiovascular angle on cardiovascular risk.
The SELECT trial demonstrated a 20% reduction in MACE with semaglutide 2.4mg[1]. This is practice-changing because the CV benefit appears to be independent of the degree of weight loss — suggesting direct vascular and anti-inflammatory mechanisms.
For cardiovascular risk, this means we need to think beyond the primary outcome and consider the cardiovascular implications. The all-cause mortality reduction (HR 0.81) is the most clinically meaningful signal.
[1] Lincoff AM, et al. N Engl J Med. 2023;389(24):2221-2232.