One thing that is still open after Dr.NephBHM_UK’s answer:
How would you tell the difference between that and the alternative explanation?
DataDave said:One practical note: write down what you did and when, before you need it.
This is where I part company with the consensus forming above. This treats a plausible mechanism as a demonstrated one. Plausible is where you start looking, not where you stop.
DataDave said:One practical note: write down what you did and when, before you need it.
Agreed, and the size of the effect matters as much as its existence. Something real and small gets treated here as though it were real and decisive.
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Shop Reference StandardsDataDave said:One practical note: write down what you did and when, before you need it.
That reframing is the part I needed. I will report back once I have actually tried it.
Reporting back.
Update, and it is the boring outcome: nothing was wrong. The measurement I was reading had moved less than its own week-to-week variation, which somebody said upthread and I did not believe.