Is it possible to reverse type 2 or am I dreaming — need advice

anna.melb_AU said:

It is worth asking what the claim would look like if it were false.

There is a second half to this that has not been said yet. Start from the measurement rather than the conclusion. Almost every disagreement here turns out to be two people measuring different things and comparing the numbers anyway.

I would rather be corrected than agreed with, if it comes to it.

One concrete data point for the thread. Say what you would expect to see if you were wrong, before you look. It is a small discipline and it changes what you notice.

One thing that is still open after anna.melb_AU’s answer:

Was that from a primary source or from a summary of one?

DataDave said:

Say what you would expect to see if you were wrong, before you look.

This is where I part company with the consensus forming above. Filing an objection on the n=1 problem. Personal experience is genuine evidence about one person and very weak evidence about anybody else, and this thread keeps promoting the first into the second.

DataDave said:

Say what you would expect to see if you were wrong, before you look.

Fair, and it stops being fair at the extremes. The middle of the range is well understood; the ends are where the honest answer is that nobody knows.