Moderator note: good thread. Keeping it here rather than moving it, because the question is general enough to be useful. Carry on.
One concrete data point for the thread. Say what you would expect to see if you were wrong, before you look. It is a small discipline and it changes what you notice.
A narrower follow-up, since the general answer is now clear:
What did you change at the same time, and can you separate the two now?
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View Resultsquinn_sf said:Say what you would expect to see if you were wrong, before you look.
I read this differently from quinn_sf, on substance rather than tone. The objection nobody has made: this only works if the measurement is doing what we assume it is doing, and that assumption has not been tested here.
quinn_sf said:Say what you would expect to see if you were wrong, before you look.
Fair, and it stops being fair at the extremes. The middle of the range is well understood; the ends are where the honest answer is that nobody knows.
Correct me if the detail matters more than I have assumed.