Threw up at the gym on injection day - lesson learned — looking for input

Dr.GastroMayo said:

Whatever the answer turns out to be, the method for getting there is the same: state the assumption, do the arithmetic in public, and invite the…

Coming at Dr.GastroMayo’s question from a different direction. It helps to say which part of this you are uncertain about. A precise question gets a precise answer; a general one gets everybody’s favourite anecdote.

Closing the loop on my own question.

Closing this out. What actually changed my mind was the point about waiting for a trend instead of reading a single measurement, which is embarrassing in hindsight and worth saying anyway.

Following on from Dr.GastroMayo — and this may be the naive question:

Was that from a primary source or from a summary of one?

pete_nash said:

What actually changed my mind was the point about waiting for a trend instead of reading a single measurement, which is embarrassing in hindsight and…

I am going to disagree with the direction of travel here. The thread has converged on the tidiest answer rather than the best-supported one, and those are not the same thing.

pete_nash said:

What actually changed my mind was the point about waiting for a trend instead of reading a single measurement, which is embarrassing in hindsight and…

That is right, and it stops being right at the edges. The general case is well behaved; the interesting cases in this thread are all at the boundary where the general case breaks.