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ForumsSemaglutide (Ozempic / Wegovy)Semaglutide cardiovascular benefit: SELECT trial deep dive

Semaglutide cardiovascular benefit: SELECT trial deep dive

Dr.CardioMD Sun, May 31, 2026 at 8:37 PM 21 replies 414 viewsPage 1 of 5
Dr.CardioMD
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May 31, 2026 at 8:37 PM#1

Posting this because the summary going around does not say what the paper says, and the difference matters for how people here are using it.

SELECT is the trial that changed the framing of this class, because it was an outcome trial rather than a weight trial: about a 20% relative reduction in major adverse cardiovascular events in people with established cardiovascular disease and overweight or obesity, without diabetes. The effect appeared earlier than the weight-loss curve can comfortably explain, which is the basis for arguing that some of the benefit is direct — anti-inflammatory and vascular — rather than purely a consequence of weight.

Where I think it is weakest: the follow-up is short relative to how long people actually take these drugs, so durability is an assumption here rather than a finding.

What would genuinely help is knowing how much of the SELECT benefit is plausibly independent of the weight loss, and whether that distinction changes anything practical. Tell me what I have not thought of.

Note on sourcing:
Figures above are from the primary publication rather than the press summary. If a number here disagrees with one you have, post yours and we will work out which of us is reading a secondary source.
27 22kim_atl_prep, sarah_TO, wendy_avl and 24 others
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DanielChem_CHI
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May 31, 2026 at 8:38 PM#2
Dr.CardioMD said:
SELECT is the trial that changed the framing of this class, because it was an outcome trial rather than a weight trial: about a 20% relative reduction…

All true, with one condition: that curve is for people who reached the dose on schedule. Anyone who slowed the ladder for tolerability is on a different, flatter curve, and comparing yourself with the published mean will make you feel like a non-responder when you are not.

Correct me if the detail matters more than I have assumed.

26 21Dr.DermMIA, fiona_VT, denise_HTX and 23 others
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CarlaRPh_TPA
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May 31, 2026 at 8:40 PM#3
Dr.CardioMD said:
SELECT is the trial that changed the framing of this class, because it was an outcome trial rather than a weight trial: about a 20% relative reduction…

Pushing back on Dr.CardioMD here. The "earlier than weight loss explains" argument is weaker than this thread makes it sound. Blood pressure and inflammatory markers move fast and are downstream of early weight loss, so the mechanism is not as cleanly separable as the summaries imply.

25 20BrianDallas92, labquiet_amy, emily_PDX and 22 others
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claudia_zurich
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May 31, 2026 at 8:41 PM#4

Short answer first, then the reasoning. Steady state is the thing most people miss. The terminal half-life is about a week, so every dose step takes four to five weeks to fully express itself. Judging a step at day ten is judging the ascent, not the plateau, and it is the single commonest reason people escalate before they needed to.

Last edited: Jun 1, 2026 at 2:41 AM
24 19alex_tucson, kevin_tulsa, Dr.PainCLE and 21 others
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SteveThurs
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May 31, 2026 at 8:49 PM#5
DanielChem_CHI said:
All true, with one condition: that curve is for people who reached the dose on schedule.

That holds for the injectable. The oral formulation has different absorption behaviour and the dose numbers are not interchangeable, which is worth saying out loud because people quote them as if they were.

23 18TomTeleRx, DoseLogDan, SleepFixSam and 20 others
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