One thing that is still open after TinaHashiRN’s answer:
Was that from a primary source or from a summary of one?
NicoleRaleigh said:Almost every unanswerable question in these threads is unanswerable because three things changed in the same fortnight, and no amount of subsequent…
Pushing back on NicoleRaleigh here. This treats a plausible mechanism as a demonstrated one. Plausible is where you start looking, not where you stop.
NicoleRaleigh said:Almost every unanswerable question in these threads is unanswerable because three things changed in the same fortnight, and no amount of subsequent…
That holds where the measurement is reliable. Where it is noisy — and a lot of what gets tracked here is noisy — the same reasoning produces confident nonsense.
That is the short version; the long version is somebody else's post.
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View ResultsNicoleRaleigh said:Almost every unanswerable question in these threads is unanswerable because three things changed in the same fortnight, and no amount of subsequent…
That reframing is the part I needed. Adding it to my notes with a link back to this thread.
Clinical perspective, offered as context rather than as advice. Whatever the answer turns out to be, the method for getting there is the same: state the assumption, do the arithmetic in public, and invite the correction. That is slower than asserting, and it is the only version that survives being wrong.