Started this morning and already overthinking everything — my results so far

One thing that is still open after andrew_nyc’s answer:

How would you tell the difference between that and the alternative explanation?

hans_munich said:

Update — my curve sits below the published mean and the explanation is that the trial arm had support I do not have.

I read this differently. The confidence in this thread is running ahead of the evidence, and I would rather the uncertainty were stated than smoothed over because it is unsatisfying.

hans_munich said:

Update — my curve sits below the published mean and the explanation is that the trial arm had support I do not have.

Agreed, with the usual condition: that holds for the average and this board is a collection of individuals. A population claim and a personal prediction are different things and get quoted interchangeably.

That is the short version; the long version is somebody else's post.

hans_munich said:

Update — my curve sits below the published mean and the explanation is that the trial arm had support I do not have.

Saving this. It is the first explanation that did not require me to already understand it. Sending this to two other people who asked me the same thing last week.

Adding the clinical framing, because it changes how the question reads. Worth answering the question that was asked rather than the one behind it. The narrow version usually has an answer; the broad version usually does not, and answering the broad one is how a thread stops being useful.