Adding the numbers, since they settle part of this. Say what you would expect to see if you were wrong, before you look. It is a small discipline and it changes what you notice.
A narrower follow-up, since the general answer is now clear:
How would you tell the difference between that and the alternative explanation?
LabKate said:Say what you would expect to see if you were wrong, before you look.
I read this differently. The confidence in this thread is running ahead of the evidence, and I would rather the uncertainty were stated than smoothed over because it is unsatisfying.
If somebody has the primary source to hand I would rather cite it than paraphrase it.
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View ResultsLabKate said:Say what you would expect to see if you were wrong, before you look.
Correct, and worth adding that it is reversible. Nothing being described here is a one-way door, which changes how cautious it is reasonable to be.
LabKate said:Say what you would expect to see if you were wrong, before you look.
Saving this. It is the first explanation that did not require me to already understand it. Adding it to my notes with a link back to this thread.