Reprising the part of this that the last few posts have moved away from:
The mechanism and the magnitude are separate questions. Agreeing that something happens says nothing about whether it happens enough to act on.
That is the short version; the long version is somebody else's post.
One thing that is still open after sean_dublin’s answer:
How would you tell the difference between that and the alternative explanation?
Reporting back.
For the archive: it took about six weeks rather than the two I expected, and the difference between those two numbers was the whole of my problem.
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View Resultslabquiet_amy said:The mechanism and the magnitude are separate questions.
Correct as far as it goes. The part it does not cover is what to do when the honest answer is "not enough data", which is more often than anyone likes.
labquiet_amy said:The mechanism and the magnitude are separate questions.
This is exactly what I could not find anywhere else.