This vendor ghosted me after I paid, anyone else?? — my results so far

rachel_ABQ said:

The distinction that resolves most of these threads is between what is true on average and what is true for one person.

That is right, and it stops being right at the edges. The general case is well behaved; the interesting cases in this thread are all at the boundary where the general case breaks.

Dr.NutriCornell said:

Right, and one flattering data point from a group buy is not consistency.

Bookmarking. The distinction being drawn above is the one nobody else makes. Sending this to two other people who asked me the same thing last week.

rachel_ABQ said:

The distinction that resolves most of these threads is between what is true on average and what is true for one person.

I read this differently from rachel_ABQ, on substance rather than tone. This treats a plausible mechanism as a demonstrated one. Plausible is where you start looking, not where you stop.

The figures, for anyone assembling their own picture. Keep the original post as written when you update it, and add the correction underneath. An edited-away mistake is invisible to the next person who makes it.

Moderator note: good thread. Keeping it here rather than moving it, because the question is general enough to be useful. Carry on.